Daily

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Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) August 31, Sept 14, Sept 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Active

Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group:

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

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Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 23 2020 7250 36863 218 54 1708 2119
November 24 2020 7336 37074 231 56 1710 2113
November 25 2020 7479 37323 237 56 1614 2187
November 26 2020 7563 37502 239 57 1414 2088
November 27 2020 7563 37665 241 57 1312 2021
November 28 2020 7661 37844 243 57 1059 2035
November 29 2020 7756 37967 243 57 978 1891
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 4 3.7 4.4% 43 0.37% 83 0.72%
10-19 6 9.0 12.4% 121 0.89% 242 1.78%
20-29 29 21.1 24.9% 244 1.17% 476 2.27%
30-39 17 13.3 16.3% 159 1.17% 313 2.3%
40-49 12 10.0 12.3% 120 1.15% 241 2.3%
50-59 7 10.0 12.2% 119 0.95% 226 1.8%
60-69 10 8.6 9.5% 93 0.81% 166 1.44%
70+ 10 6.3 8.1% 79 0.75% 144 1.38%
All ages 95 82.0 100% 978 0.93% 1891 1.81%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 23 2020 4304 22492 117 45 946 1504
November 24 2020 4376 22581 120 47 938 1392
November 25 2020 4455 22690 123 48 944 1369
November 26 2020 4530 22766 125 49 950 1307
November 27 2020 4531 22828 126 50 838 1173
November 28 2020 4535 22892 127 50 738 1097
November 29 2020 4598 22959 130 51 704 1087
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 3 2.3 3.6% 25 0.32% 37 0.48%
10-19 6 5.0 7.5% 53 0.63% 86 1.02%
20-29 7 6.9 14.5% 102 1.43% 166 2.33%
30-39 8 7.9 19% 134 1.59% 195 2.32%
40-49 8 9.6 18.2% 128 1.65% 177 2.28%
50-59 9 6.6 15.9% 112 1.15% 180 1.86%
60-69 10 4.9 9.8% 69 0.82% 130 1.55%
70+ 12 6.0 11.5% 81 1.14% 116 1.63%
All ages 63 49.0 100% 704 1.09% 1087 1.68%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 23 2020 3307 14847 117 37 1123 1388
November 24 2020 3345 14879 122 38 948 1354
November 25 2020 3407 14958 125 39 766 1354
November 26 2020 3465 15055 128 41 744 1337
November 27 2020 3465 15195 128 41 711 1281
November 28 2020 3558 15226 136 41 676 1161
November 29 2020 3580 15261 139 41 557 939
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 2.6 5.4% 30 0.55% 46 0.85%
10-19 0 3.1 9% 50 0.92% 90 1.66%
20-29 1 6.0 12.4% 69 1.53% 110 2.43%
30-39 2 6.4 15.1% 84 1.55% 144 2.65%
40-49 2 6.0 12% 67 1.35% 134 2.69%
50-59 2 7.7 15.4% 86 1.27% 148 2.18%
60-69 6 5.9 13.3% 74 1.17% 130 2.05%
70+ 8 9.4 17.4% 97 1.53% 137 2.16%
All ages 22 47.1 100% 557 1.23% 939 2.08%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 23 2020 7401 39430 142 32 1217 1866
November 24 2020 7500 39690 151 33 1274 1874
November 25 2020 7651 39989 155 34 1366 1818
November 26 2020 7761 40101 157 34 1312 1743
November 27 2020 7813 40286 157 35 1172 1629
November 28 2020 7906 40422 158 35 1061 1680
November 29 2020 8011 40550 158 35 1092 1726
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 3.7 3.5% 38 0.32% 58 0.49%
10-19 10 9.9 9.3% 102 0.62% 159 0.96%
20-29 18 19.0 20.4% 223 1.05% 352 1.65%
30-39 13 14.4 16% 175 1.29% 293 2.15%
40-49 16 12.3 13.3% 145 1.07% 219 1.61%
50-59 18 13.1 13.1% 143 1.01% 246 1.73%
60-69 13 11.6 12.3% 134 0.94% 207 1.46%
70+ 17 11.9 12.1% 132 1.01% 192 1.48%
All ages 105 95.9 100% 1092 0.92% 1726 1.46%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 23 2020 25006 269472 733 75 3951 6209
November 24 2020 25755 270881 742 77 4407 6261
November 25 2020 25990 271803 744 77 4270 6034
November 26 2020 26367 272956 749 80 4144 5777
November 27 2020 26412 273981 757 80 3482 5357
November 28 2020 26843 274307 775 80 3369 5495
November 29 2020 27236 275143 782 80 3367 5516
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 24 19.3 6% 202 0.34% 303 0.5%
10-19 63 53.0 15.6% 525 0.74% 933 1.31%
20-29 68 74.0 22.5% 757 0.73% 1246 1.2%
30-39 68 56.4 17.1% 577 0.75% 910 1.19%
40-49 67 50.0 14.5% 487 0.74% 774 1.18%
50-59 46 35.9 10.6% 357 0.54% 598 0.91%
60-69 29 27.1 7.8% 261 0.48% 418 0.76%
70+ 28 22.9 6% 201 0.41% 334 0.68%
All ages 393 338.6 100% 3367 0.62% 5516 1.01%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 23 2020 357771 2094448 15930 3011 56606 86001
November 24 2020 363973 2104756 16209 3115 57662 85130
November 25 2020 369442 2116549 16457 3178 57073 83551
November 26 2020 374537 2125202 16658 3240 57779 81149
November 27 2020 375837 2133700 16715 3257 51989 74672
November 28 2020 380870 2138110 16882 3285 49033 74559
November 29 2020 384701 2143790 16999 3307 46229 72332
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 170 196.4 4.5% 2095 0.33% 3143 0.49%
10-19 450 479.3 11.2% 5176 0.68% 7988 1.06%
20-29 618 737.1 17.1% 7899 1.04% 12217 1.61%
30-39 621 656.0 15.5% 7156 0.95% 11400 1.51%
40-49 563 620.4 14.4% 6659 0.95% 10648 1.52%
50-59 548 629.9 15% 6951 0.85% 11089 1.36%
60-69 441 486.0 11.4% 5273 0.7% 8240 1.09%
70+ 420 484.1 10.9% 5020 0.78% 7607 1.19%
All ages 3831 4289.3 100% 46229 0.79% 72332 1.24%

Column

Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
180.7 177.9 227.4 82 187.1 31.8%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
168.1 49 101.6 39.2%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
207.5 47.1 118.4 43.3%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
146 96.1 165.4 95.9 144.6 34.6%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
100.9 131.3 120 338.6 502.6 25.3%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
124.2 105.5 161.4 4289.3 6563.7 33.9%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 4.9 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.5 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-20 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 3167"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red