Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 23 2020 | 7250 | 36863 | 218 | 54 | 1708 | 2119 |
| November 24 2020 | 7336 | 37074 | 231 | 56 | 1710 | 2113 |
| November 25 2020 | 7479 | 37323 | 237 | 56 | 1614 | 2187 |
| November 26 2020 | 7563 | 37502 | 239 | 57 | 1414 | 2088 |
| November 27 2020 | 7563 | 37665 | 241 | 57 | 1312 | 2021 |
| November 28 2020 | 7661 | 37844 | 243 | 57 | 1059 | 2035 |
| November 29 2020 | 7756 | 37967 | 243 | 57 | 978 | 1891 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 3.7 | 4.4% | 43 | 0.37% | 83 | 0.72% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 9.0 | 12.4% | 121 | 0.89% | 242 | 1.78% |
| 20-29 | 29 | 21.1 | 24.9% | 244 | 1.17% | 476 | 2.27% |
| 30-39 | 17 | 13.3 | 16.3% | 159 | 1.17% | 313 | 2.3% |
| 40-49 | 12 | 10.0 | 12.3% | 120 | 1.15% | 241 | 2.3% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 10.0 | 12.2% | 119 | 0.95% | 226 | 1.8% |
| 60-69 | 10 | 8.6 | 9.5% | 93 | 0.81% | 166 | 1.44% |
| 70+ | 10 | 6.3 | 8.1% | 79 | 0.75% | 144 | 1.38% |
| All ages | 95 | 82.0 | 100% | 978 | 0.93% | 1891 | 1.81% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 23 2020 | 4304 | 22492 | 117 | 45 | 946 | 1504 |
| November 24 2020 | 4376 | 22581 | 120 | 47 | 938 | 1392 |
| November 25 2020 | 4455 | 22690 | 123 | 48 | 944 | 1369 |
| November 26 2020 | 4530 | 22766 | 125 | 49 | 950 | 1307 |
| November 27 2020 | 4531 | 22828 | 126 | 50 | 838 | 1173 |
| November 28 2020 | 4535 | 22892 | 127 | 50 | 738 | 1097 |
| November 29 2020 | 4598 | 22959 | 130 | 51 | 704 | 1087 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 2.3 | 3.6% | 25 | 0.32% | 37 | 0.48% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 5.0 | 7.5% | 53 | 0.63% | 86 | 1.02% |
| 20-29 | 7 | 6.9 | 14.5% | 102 | 1.43% | 166 | 2.33% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 7.9 | 19% | 134 | 1.59% | 195 | 2.32% |
| 40-49 | 8 | 9.6 | 18.2% | 128 | 1.65% | 177 | 2.28% |
| 50-59 | 9 | 6.6 | 15.9% | 112 | 1.15% | 180 | 1.86% |
| 60-69 | 10 | 4.9 | 9.8% | 69 | 0.82% | 130 | 1.55% |
| 70+ | 12 | 6.0 | 11.5% | 81 | 1.14% | 116 | 1.63% |
| All ages | 63 | 49.0 | 100% | 704 | 1.09% | 1087 | 1.68% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 23 2020 | 3307 | 14847 | 117 | 37 | 1123 | 1388 |
| November 24 2020 | 3345 | 14879 | 122 | 38 | 948 | 1354 |
| November 25 2020 | 3407 | 14958 | 125 | 39 | 766 | 1354 |
| November 26 2020 | 3465 | 15055 | 128 | 41 | 744 | 1337 |
| November 27 2020 | 3465 | 15195 | 128 | 41 | 711 | 1281 |
| November 28 2020 | 3558 | 15226 | 136 | 41 | 676 | 1161 |
| November 29 2020 | 3580 | 15261 | 139 | 41 | 557 | 939 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 2.6 | 5.4% | 30 | 0.55% | 46 | 0.85% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 3.1 | 9% | 50 | 0.92% | 90 | 1.66% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 6.0 | 12.4% | 69 | 1.53% | 110 | 2.43% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 6.4 | 15.1% | 84 | 1.55% | 144 | 2.65% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 6.0 | 12% | 67 | 1.35% | 134 | 2.69% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 7.7 | 15.4% | 86 | 1.27% | 148 | 2.18% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 5.9 | 13.3% | 74 | 1.17% | 130 | 2.05% |
| 70+ | 8 | 9.4 | 17.4% | 97 | 1.53% | 137 | 2.16% |
| All ages | 22 | 47.1 | 100% | 557 | 1.23% | 939 | 2.08% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 23 2020 | 7401 | 39430 | 142 | 32 | 1217 | 1866 |
| November 24 2020 | 7500 | 39690 | 151 | 33 | 1274 | 1874 |
| November 25 2020 | 7651 | 39989 | 155 | 34 | 1366 | 1818 |
| November 26 2020 | 7761 | 40101 | 157 | 34 | 1312 | 1743 |
| November 27 2020 | 7813 | 40286 | 157 | 35 | 1172 | 1629 |
| November 28 2020 | 7906 | 40422 | 158 | 35 | 1061 | 1680 |
| November 29 2020 | 8011 | 40550 | 158 | 35 | 1092 | 1726 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 3.7 | 3.5% | 38 | 0.32% | 58 | 0.49% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 9.9 | 9.3% | 102 | 0.62% | 159 | 0.96% |
| 20-29 | 18 | 19.0 | 20.4% | 223 | 1.05% | 352 | 1.65% |
| 30-39 | 13 | 14.4 | 16% | 175 | 1.29% | 293 | 2.15% |
| 40-49 | 16 | 12.3 | 13.3% | 145 | 1.07% | 219 | 1.61% |
| 50-59 | 18 | 13.1 | 13.1% | 143 | 1.01% | 246 | 1.73% |
| 60-69 | 13 | 11.6 | 12.3% | 134 | 0.94% | 207 | 1.46% |
| 70+ | 17 | 11.9 | 12.1% | 132 | 1.01% | 192 | 1.48% |
| All ages | 105 | 95.9 | 100% | 1092 | 0.92% | 1726 | 1.46% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 23 2020 | 25006 | 269472 | 733 | 75 | 3951 | 6209 |
| November 24 2020 | 25755 | 270881 | 742 | 77 | 4407 | 6261 |
| November 25 2020 | 25990 | 271803 | 744 | 77 | 4270 | 6034 |
| November 26 2020 | 26367 | 272956 | 749 | 80 | 4144 | 5777 |
| November 27 2020 | 26412 | 273981 | 757 | 80 | 3482 | 5357 |
| November 28 2020 | 26843 | 274307 | 775 | 80 | 3369 | 5495 |
| November 29 2020 | 27236 | 275143 | 782 | 80 | 3367 | 5516 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 24 | 19.3 | 6% | 202 | 0.34% | 303 | 0.5% |
| 10-19 | 63 | 53.0 | 15.6% | 525 | 0.74% | 933 | 1.31% |
| 20-29 | 68 | 74.0 | 22.5% | 757 | 0.73% | 1246 | 1.2% |
| 30-39 | 68 | 56.4 | 17.1% | 577 | 0.75% | 910 | 1.19% |
| 40-49 | 67 | 50.0 | 14.5% | 487 | 0.74% | 774 | 1.18% |
| 50-59 | 46 | 35.9 | 10.6% | 357 | 0.54% | 598 | 0.91% |
| 60-69 | 29 | 27.1 | 7.8% | 261 | 0.48% | 418 | 0.76% |
| 70+ | 28 | 22.9 | 6% | 201 | 0.41% | 334 | 0.68% |
| All ages | 393 | 338.6 | 100% | 3367 | 0.62% | 5516 | 1.01% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 23 2020 | 357771 | 2094448 | 15930 | 3011 | 56606 | 86001 |
| November 24 2020 | 363973 | 2104756 | 16209 | 3115 | 57662 | 85130 |
| November 25 2020 | 369442 | 2116549 | 16457 | 3178 | 57073 | 83551 |
| November 26 2020 | 374537 | 2125202 | 16658 | 3240 | 57779 | 81149 |
| November 27 2020 | 375837 | 2133700 | 16715 | 3257 | 51989 | 74672 |
| November 28 2020 | 380870 | 2138110 | 16882 | 3285 | 49033 | 74559 |
| November 29 2020 | 384701 | 2143790 | 16999 | 3307 | 46229 | 72332 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 170 | 196.4 | 4.5% | 2095 | 0.33% | 3143 | 0.49% |
| 10-19 | 450 | 479.3 | 11.2% | 5176 | 0.68% | 7988 | 1.06% |
| 20-29 | 618 | 737.1 | 17.1% | 7899 | 1.04% | 12217 | 1.61% |
| 30-39 | 621 | 656.0 | 15.5% | 7156 | 0.95% | 11400 | 1.51% |
| 40-49 | 563 | 620.4 | 14.4% | 6659 | 0.95% | 10648 | 1.52% |
| 50-59 | 548 | 629.9 | 15% | 6951 | 0.85% | 11089 | 1.36% |
| 60-69 | 441 | 486.0 | 11.4% | 5273 | 0.7% | 8240 | 1.09% |
| 70+ | 420 | 484.1 | 10.9% | 5020 | 0.78% | 7607 | 1.19% |
| All ages | 3831 | 4289.3 | 100% | 46229 | 0.79% | 72332 | 1.24% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 180.7 | 177.9 | 227.4 | 82 | 187.1 | 31.8% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 168.1 | 49 | 101.6 | 39.2% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 207.5 | 47.1 | 118.4 | 43.3% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 146 | 96.1 | 165.4 | 95.9 | 144.6 | 34.6% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100.9 | 131.3 | 120 | 338.6 | 502.6 | 25.3% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 124.2 | 105.5 | 161.4 | 4289.3 | 6563.7 | 33.9% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 4.9 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.5 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-20 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 3167"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges